Buy or Sell Now, or Wait for Lower Rates? | CaliLoanPro

If you have been asking yourself the same question for months, should I make my move now, or wait for mortgage rates to come down?, you are in very good company. It is a question people search for thousands of times every month, and searches for it jumped in September as rates started climbing again. Buyers ask it. Sellers ask it too.

I do not think there is a perfect answer, but there is a calm, practical way to think it through. Below, I will walk through what the numbers say right now, what it means if you are buying, selling, or doing both, and a short checklist you can use to decide.

Where things stand right now

The national picture and our local picture are not quite the same story. Here is a snapshot from the most recent data I could verify:

Sources: Freddie Mac, Redfin, and the September 2026 Santa Clara County market report (inventory as of Oct. 5). Figures are rounded and change weekly.

If you are buying

A higher rate is not a life sentence. If rates fall later, you may be able to refinance into a lower rate, as long as you qualify and the savings outweigh the closing costs. That is never guaranteed, so I always suggest choosing a home and payment that feel comfortable at today's rate, then treating a future drop as a bonus.

Slower demand is working in buyers' favor. With more homes on the market than a year ago and fewer buyers competing, you may have room to negotiate on price, ask for seller credits, or request a seller-paid rate buydown. These can be worth more than a small price reduction. Nationally, Redfin says buyers have the most negotiating power in more than a decade; locally it is more mixed, so the right strategy depends on the neighborhood and the home.

Waiting has a cost too. When rates fall, buyers tend to return all at once. More competition can push prices up and erase part of what a lower rate would have saved you. Nobody can predict that timing, which is why I focus on your readiness rather than on the calendar.

If you are selling

Local demand for well-priced houses is still there. Single-family homes in Santa Clara County closed at about 103.6% of list price in September, in roughly 26 days. Condos are a different story, with average prices down about 9% from a year ago and more inventory sitting longer, so realistic pricing matters even more if you own one.

Think about what helps your buyer afford your home. Because buyers are watching their monthly costs closely, a seller credit toward a rate buydown or closing costs can be more attractive than a price cut. Redfin's analysts have recommended pricing realistically and offering concessions like these (Real Estate News, Oct. 12). Your listing agent can tell you what is working on your street.

If you are buying your next home too, the sequence matters more than the rate. You will be financing the next purchase at whatever rates are available when you buy, whether you sell now or later. The real questions are how to line up the sale and the purchase, and whether you need a bridge or rent-back to avoid a gap. I will cover that in next week's post.

So, will rates go down?

Forecasters expect a slow easing, not a sudden drop. As of early October, published projections from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association and Wells Fargo put the 30-year fixed rate in the high 6% range through the end of 2027 (about 6.7% to 6.75%), according to LendingTree's forecast roundup. For perspective, those same forecasts had rates ending 2026 near 6.8%, while the national average sits at 7.32% today, which is a good reminder of how hard rates are to call.

The practical takeaway: plan around today's rate. Rates this year have bounced around by more than a full percentage point. A plan that only works if rates fall is a plan that depends on something none of us control.

A simple way to decide: four questions

1. Does the payment work at today's rate, not a hoped-for one? Run your own numbers with the mortgage calculator, then pressure-test them against your monthly budget.
2. How long do you expect to stay? The longer you plan to stay, the more time you have to refinance if rates fall and the less any single month's rate matters.
3. Do you have enough cash reserves after closing? Down payment, closing costs, and an emergency cushion all count, especially if you are considering a buydown.
4. Is this the right home or the right moment for you? If life is nudging you to move, a good home at a workable payment is hard to put a price on. If not, waiting while you build savings and credit is a sound choice.

Not sure where you stand? The buyer readiness assessment takes a few minutes, and you can get pre-approved so you know your real numbers before you commit to anything.

Frequently asked questions

Let’s look at your numbers together

You do not have to figure this out alone. Whether you are buying, selling, or doing both, I am happy to walk through your options in plain English, with no pressure and no obligation. You can book a call with me, compare loan options, or start your pre-approval whenever you are ready.

Warm regards,
Chris Johnson
Associate Broker, Affinity Mortgage | NMLS #235072

Rates shown are third-party national averages for illustration only, not a rate offer or quote. Market figures are from the sources linked above and may have changed since publication.

Chris Johnson | Associate Broker | Affinity Mortgage | NMLS #235072 | Affinity Mortgage NMLS #252576 | 2542 S Bascom Ave, Suite 185, Campbell, CA 95008 | Equal Housing Lender. This is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a commitment to lend. Loan approval is subject to credit approval and program guidelines. Interest rates and program terms are subject to change without notice.